Wednesday, March 01, 2006

 

A turn-up for the books?

In the time between the tossing of the coin and its landing, breathe the wrong way and you'll change the outcome...

So they say. The last votes have come through the postbox (or in some cases, I'd like to believe, hand-delivered by forgetful yet conscientious London members), and all that remains is to await the result. But what result? Unlike the Tory leadership contest, only Simon Hughes is left looking somewhat desperate proclaiming himself to be in the race, while supporters of the remaining two candidates will have a nervous wait for 3pm tomorrow - Ming declaring himself to be "optimistic although not complacent" and Chris's team relaxing by taking in some Jazz in sunny Cheltenham.

Meanwhile, a lot of late money has been changing hands on the betting exchanges. First Huhne's odds on Betfair lengthened as spooked punters laid off their bets, putting Campbell into the lead, then Campbell surged to 11/25 hot favourate by half past ten. Meanwhile the convenional bookies were split - William Hill have stood their ground and have not offered new odds since making Huhne 8/11 favourite at noon, while Ladbrokes are offering the same price on Ming.

Part of the problem in calling the race is the difficulty in producing polls for a 3-way Alternative Vote race among a small and, more importantly, unpublished membership. The only poll of members that OLO has seen so far is a two-poll aggregate on Guido's - and if this graphic is to be believed then that's very good news for the man himself ;-)

My personal feeling is that Ming will edge it, with his lead for second preferences among Hughes supporters the deciding factor. But one way or another, it's going to be an exciting day tomorrow.

Comments:

As a conscientous London member, I can confirm that I plodded along to a god-awful minature industrial estate in North London on Monday to hand in Richard's and my sealed ballot papers in person, just in case.

We took a long time to decide, argued it back and forth, can see the good and bad in all of them, and in the end used completely different preferences to each other. But we'll support whoever wins, and don't know what that'll be ;-)

 
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