Monday, January 29, 2007

 

Up 3 in YouGov: Lib Dem supporters not dead, just hibernating


If you don't "do" polls, look away now!

January's YouGov poll is out with a substantial bounce for the Lib Dems:
Con 38% (+1)
Lab 31% (-1)
LD 18% (+3)
Others 13% (-2)
Lib Dems will have come to fear YouGov in recent months, as they give us by far the lowest score of all the major polling organisations. This is welcome news though and confirms the trend in the excellent January ICM poll showing us up five points on 23%.

If these trends are anything to go by, January's MORI poll ought to be a good one when it comes out. I'm guessing somewhere in the area of 20-21%, but watch this space.

Ming's recent statement that we are polling "in the region of 18-20%" is starting to look a little modest!

The cause of this bounce is of course open to debate - Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report has a theory that a significant chunk of Lib Dems were absent from the sample during the Christmas weeks. Ming's team will no doubt argue that the polls are thanks to a very good news week for the party, after the crime launch and our statement on Iraq. It's probably a bit of both.

So we survived 2006, folks. It seems that, nationally, we're at least back where we were in May 2005. Now we need to make sure we have a good 2007 - and I personally will be hoping to take another bite out of Labour's local government base in May.

Hopefully the We Can Cut Crime campaign will start to conquer some fresh political ground when we take it to the streets in February. It's the first time in a long, long while that we've had a coherent, positive message on crime. I'm looking forward to it.

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